The November 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011.  The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. will experience a recession in the next 12 months, down from a 1-in-3 chance they were seeing just two months ago, when concerns were at their highest level since the recent recession ended in June 2009.


The economists, on average, put 2-in-3 odds that the euro zone will fall into recession.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2011 : 1.7%

full-year 2012:  2.3%

full-year 2013:  2.6%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.0%

December 2012: 8.7%

December 2013: 8.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.17%

December 2012: 2.79%

December 2013: 3.36%


December 2011:  3.3%

December 2012:  2.2%

December 2013:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $88.68

for 12/31/2012: $91.60

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written