On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth. I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators.
Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the WLI Growth measure is derived.
Here is a simple definition of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, as seen in the ECRI glossary:
The WLI is a forward-looking composite leading index that anticipates cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity by 2-3 quarters. Updates are available on Friday mornings to members at 9:00 AM and to the public at 10:30 AM. The monthly data starts in 1949, and the weekly data in 1967.
For reference purposes, here are two charts that depict the ECRI WLI. Both are from Doug Short’s post of November 21. The first is a long-term weekly chart of the ECRI WLI:
This next chart depicts both the WLI and WLI Growth measures, as noted, for comparison:
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1167.43 as this post is written