America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 19, 2012. The headline is “So Far, Economy Hasn’t Slipped On Oil Prices.” The commentary largely focuses on the rising prices of oil and gasoline and the economists’ views on how they will impact the economy. Also, as seen in the Q&A section …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On September 30, 2011 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.” Since that time, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI has reaffirmed that view in various interviews, such as that on February 26, parts of which I highlighted in the February 28 post titled “The Velocity Of Money – Comments And Charts.” Yesterday, ECRI …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on March 8, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 3-2-12 on a …
On October 27, 2009, I wrote a post titled “Aruoba -Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index.” That post explained the then-new ADS Index, and I have been featuring a chart of the ADS in the monthly Updates On Economic Indicators. On February 23, Doug Short published a post titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index” …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 23, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-17-12 on a …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 21, 2012: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the February 6 update titled “Index …
The Philadelphia Fed First Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 10. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2012 : 2.3% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year 2014 : …