America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are a couple of links to a recent Warren Buffett interview. I have not been able to pinpoint a date, but apparently the interview was from a month or so ago: The video link: http://pymnts.com/warren-buffett-on-what-s-next-in-the-payments-industry-2 The transcript link: http://pymnts.com/transcript-warren-buffett-on-what-s-next-in-the-payments-industry/ The first part of the interview deals with his views on the economy. Although I …
Here is another economic forecast survey, this time from NABE: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33278490/ From the article: “The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.” The survey’s results for 2010 GDP and …
I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well …
I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25. Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October …
The following story from CNBC.com will serve as a good prelude to a series of posts I will write on joblessness and hiring. It discusses the widely-held (among economists) view that we are entering a “jobless recovery.” : http://www.cnbc.com/id/32104155 It is important to note the commonality of the concept in economists’ forecasts. As I mentioned on June 9, …
Goldman Sachs yesterday came out with a new forecast on the S&P500 price as well as operating earnings, as seen on CNBC.com here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31774313 I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future: “Goldman’s current economic view is for below-trend growth through …
I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson. It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting. Here is her quote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31910717/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ “We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. …
After I wrote a post yesterday about Nouriel Roubini’s latest thoughts on the economy going forward, he came out with a statement that elaborated upon his stance. It can be found at the following link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275 As I pointed out yesterday, I find his views and forecasts to be important for a number of reasons, …
The recently released minutes of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting, found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20090624.htm stated the following: “The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. …
In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says …