After I wrote a post yesterday about Nouriel Roubini’s latest thoughts on the economy going forward, he came out with a statement that elaborated upon his stance. It can be found at the following link:
As I pointed out yesterday, I find his views and forecasts to be important for a number of reasons, especially since he is considered among the “gloomiest” of professional forecasters over the last few years – and thus provides a good “negative” perspective among the professional economic forecasters.
I did find his latest statements interesting, for the following reasons:
- He paints a picture of rather tepid growth: “Roubini predicts a shallow recovery, with growth averaging about 1 percent over the next few years.”
- He seems unique in acknowledging the possibility of a double-dip recession: “He also sees the possibility, he reiterated, of a “double-dip” recession toward the end of next year.
- His statements concerning the length of this recession are interesting (this from his formal statement): “If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two.”
As seen in point #3, seen at
he provides some perspective on how our current period of economic weakness compares to the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions.
As I have commented on previously, the length of this current economic weakness is outsized when compared on a historical basis. This outsized length is another argument supporting my theory that we are in a “new (economic) environment.”
SPX at 938.62 as this post is written
Copyright 2009 by Ted Kavadas