I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson. It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting.
Here is her quote:
“We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. “We haven’t gone through this kind of recession in most of the lifetimes of the forecasters. By the way, the models that forecasters use are the same models that missed the fact that we were going to have this recession. So let’s admit a lot of uncertainty here.”
SPX at 940.38 as this post is written