America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2015. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred one CFOs responded during the two-week period ending May 22. Seventy-one percent of respondents are from public companies, and 84% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through July 9, 2015) from Doug Short’s blog …
On July 8, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 58, up from 57 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 8 Press Release include: …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 9, 2015, titled “Today’s Update: The Philly Fed ADS …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his July 8, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Rose Again in May” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 50th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 2, 2015 update (reflecting data through June 26) is -1.053. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On July 7, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Holds at Seven-Month Low.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index was essentially steady in June, averaging -8 for the month. This is statistically tied with May’s -7 score, keeping the index at its lowest monthly reading since November. also: …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …