America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 19, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 4-13-12 on a …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief tenth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
On April 5, The Conference Board released its 1st Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, up from 49 in the fourth quarter. Notable excerpts from this April 5 Press Release include: Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “CEOs’ confidence has rebounded from rather dismal …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2012. The headline is “Economists Don’t See Fed Action This Year.” The commentary largely focuses on the possibilities and related issues with regard to whether the Federal Reserve will enact “another round of large-scale bond buying in 2012.” Per the article: Thirty-six …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 12, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 4-6-12 on a …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (the latest estimates are as of April 4), their estimates for 2012 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $104.89/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of April 10 …