America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The March NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released on April 10. The headline of the Press Release is “After Six Months of Increases, Small-Business Optimism Drops For Main Street, No New Jobs in the Months to Come.” The Index of Small Business Optimism fell almost 2 points in March, to 92.5. Here are some …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief ninth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 5, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 3-30-12 on a …
Gold has been in a correction (or consolidation) after a very steep rally. It appears as if Gold is at a critical juncture at present. The chart below depicts Gold on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2008, as well as the HUI (Gold Bugs) stock index. Gold, at $1622.80/oz, is currently below both …
On April 3, Gallup released a poll titled “Economic Confidence in March Highest Since January 2008.” A couple of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index reached -20 in March, up from -22 in February and its highest level since Gallup Daily tracking began in January 2008. The index has increased for seven straight …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
In the last post (“4 Confidence Charts – April 2, 2012 Update“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500. Doug Short had a blog post of March 30 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Highest Since February 2011“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University …