Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of 12-30-11

In yesterday’s post (“4 Confidence Charts – December 2011“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500. Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence at an Eight-Month High“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University of Michigan charts in … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of 12-30-11

4 Confidence Charts – December 2011

Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings.  These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 12-27-11: – … Read more4 Confidence Charts – December 2011

The Current Gold Price And Its Broader Significance

Gold has recently been in a correction (or consolidation) after a very steep rally. It appears as if Gold is at a critical juncture at present.  As seen in the chart below (which depicts Gold on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2008) Gold, at $1594.60/oz, is currently right below both the 200dma (depicted in … Read moreThe Current Gold Price And Its Broader Significance

Zillow December 2011 Home Price Expectation Survey – Summary & Comments

On December 20 Zillow released its December 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey results.  This survey (formerly called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectation Survey) is done on a quarterly basis. The accompanying chart is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real … Read moreZillow December 2011 Home Price Expectation Survey – Summary & Comments

Updates On Economic Indicators December 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 22, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the December 1 update titled “Index … Read moreUpdates On Economic Indicators December 2011

2012 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 19 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Buckle Up!” Included in the story, 10 “stock-market strategists and investment managers” give various forecasts including 2012 S&P500 profits, 2012 S&P500 year-end price targets, 2012 & 2013 GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen on page 27: The mean prediction of … Read more2012 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

The December 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011.  The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.” The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover. I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don’t agree with … Read moreThe December 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Building Financial Danger – December 20, 2011 Update

On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief third update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – December 20, 2011 Update

Total Household Net Worth As Of 3Q 2011 – A Long-Term Chart

In the December 13 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2011“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2011:Q3).  The last value (as of December 9, … Read moreTotal Household Net Worth As Of 3Q 2011 – A Long-Term Chart

S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2011

The December 8, 2011  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2011   1267.7 June 29, 2012   1322.5 Dec. 31, 2012    1395 Dec. 31, 2013    1480 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on … Read moreS&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2011