America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 8, 2011 titled “Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth declines $2.4 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 3Q 2011 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief second update (the first being on November 18 titled “Building Financial Danger – An Update“) to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are …
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, LOG scale, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) – It …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
This post is an update to recent posts that began on October 6 (“A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility“) on stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent outsized volatility in the stock market. This chart …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on December 1, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 11-25-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (their latest estimates are as of November 22), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $97.48/share -From a “top down” perspective, …