America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have been following The Consumer Metrics Institute’s work since March. I have previously written two posts focusing on their work (both found on March 31), as well as included it in the monthly “Updates On Economic Indicators.” To briefly summarize, I find their work and methodologies very interesting, especially given that they appear quite …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 28, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10) The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: an excerpt dated 4/29/10: “The April update of …
Pursuant to the last post, here are some charts from The Consumer Metrics Institute that I find noteworthy: As I indicated in the last post, I plan on including updated information from The Consumer Metrics Institute in my frequent updates of economic indicators… back to <home> SPX at 1170.51 as this post is written
In the previous blog post I wrote of the issues and implications regarding the current economic growth rate. There are a variety of sources and methods one may use in trying to gauge current and future economic growth. In this blog I frequently highlight and discuss many I feel are prominent and/or noteworthy. However, I …
Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized …
I ran across the following paper titled “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis” (pdf) dated February 22, 2010. This paper discusses and explains this new attempt to create a “financial conditions index” that will accurately predict economic activity. From the abstract: “As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial …
Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010. As …