America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.” As well, there a variety of interesting questions …
Saturday’s (June 19) Boston Globe contained an interview with Larry Summers on the state of the economy. I found the phrasing in a couple of his statements, as seen below, notable: “Summers, the former Harvard University president and Treasury secretary under President Clinton, presented a cautious, measured view of economic conditions. For example, after expressing …
I found Ben Bernanke’s comments on the economic outlook, given last Wednesday (June 9), to be interesting. Here are some excerpts, as published in this Wall Street Journal article of June 10: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered guarded reassurances about the economy in testimony to the House Budget Committee Wednesday, saying a new recession …
I found The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was interesting on a couple of fronts. First, as stated in the article, “The economists in the survey put the odds of a double-dip recession at 19%.” Second, as seen in the detail of this survey, the survey now includes more forecast information for December …
On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article: “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey focuses on the economic problems in Europe and the odds of The Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. As seen in the detail of this survey, the current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 among economists polled include the following: Ten-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16% CPI: 1.8% Unemployment: 9.3% …
On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments. Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest. First, an interesting quote in the survey: “”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of …
I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material. First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.” Second, …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey can be found at this link. There wasn’t much change in the survey results from last month. Also, as seen in the detail, there hasn’t been much change for many of the parameters for the last few months. As I have previously commented, I find it highly …