America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months. The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …
Here is a story from yesterday on comments by Joseph Stiglitz about his views on 2010 economic performance: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34507080 From the article: “Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year…” I find Stiglitz’s view significant because it is in marked contrast to that of the …
Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125797275784744057.html There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists. As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the …
I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well …
Moving on to the stock market… The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index. I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart. What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart …
It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …