I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey.
The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.”
As well, there a variety of interesting questions asked of the economists. These questions are seen in the Q&A section of the detail.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
Ten-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 3.5%
for 12/31/2011: 4.33%
CPI:
for 12/1/2010: 1.26%
for 12/1/2011: 1.93%
Unemployment Rate:
for 12/1/2010: 9.41%
for 12/1/2011: 8.57%
Crude:
for 12/31/2010: $76.78
for 12/31/2011: $81.01
GDP:
full-year 2010 : 2.93%
full-year 2011 : 2.99%
As compared to last month’s survey, there was little change in the above categories.
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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SPX at 1096.48 as this post is written
I can live with consensus estimates, particularly as the WSJ allows us to break out the details for each economist by downloading the speadsheet from the site (and to analyze the details against all the previous surveys). But comparing the economists’ consensus with the public poll was dirty pool: http://thefutureofpublishing.com/blog/2010/07/dismal-science/