The July 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey.

The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession.  As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.”

As well, there a variety of interesting questions asked of the economists.  These questions are seen in the Q&A section of the detail.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

Ten-Year Treasury Yield:

for 12/31/2010: 3.5%

for 12/31/2011: 4.33%


for 12/1/2010: 1.26%

for 12/1/2011: 1.93%

Unemployment Rate:

for 12/1/2010: 9.41%

for 12/1/2011: 8.57%


for 12/31/2010: $76.78

for 12/31/2011: $81.01


full-year 2010 : 2.93%

full-year 2011 : 2.99%

As compared to last month’s survey, there was little change in the above categories.

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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SPX at 1096.48 as this post is written

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