I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey.
The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.”
As well, there a variety of interesting questions asked of the economists. These questions are seen in the Q&A section of the detail.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
Ten-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 3.5%
for 12/31/2011: 4.33%
for 12/1/2010: 1.26%
for 12/1/2011: 1.93%
for 12/1/2010: 9.41%
for 12/1/2011: 8.57%
for 12/31/2010: $76.78
for 12/31/2011: $81.01
full-year 2010 : 2.93%
full-year 2011 : 2.99%
As compared to last month’s survey, there was little change in the above categories.
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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SPX at 1096.48 as this post is written