America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material. First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.” Second, …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey can be found at this link. There wasn’t much change in the survey results from last month. Also, as seen in the detail, there hasn’t been much change for many of the parameters for the last few months. As I have previously commented, I find it highly …
Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months. The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …
Here is a story from yesterday on comments by Joseph Stiglitz about his views on 2010 economic performance: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34507080 From the article: “Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year…” I find Stiglitz’s view significant because it is in marked contrast to that of the …
Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125797275784744057.html There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists. As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the …
I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well …
Moving on to the stock market… The first chart is the NYSE Summation Index. I have put in the S&P500 as an overlay in green, with the NYSE Summation Index’s MACD at the bottom of the chart. What I find interesting here is the negative MACD divergence as indicated on the chart, in blue: Chart …
It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …