The Latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey:

There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists.  As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the third quarter.”


“More than half of the respondents see a U-shaped recovery with some slowness followed by solid growth, and 31% forecast a stronger, V-shaped recovery. Just 11% of economists expect an L-shaped rebound where economic activity stabilizes at a low level, and only 7% see a double-dip recession—another drop in gross domestic product after a short rebound—as the most likely scenario.”

I find the 7% figure that see a double-dip scenario as being somewhat surprising.  However, what I really found amazing was found in the detail section of the survey.  The question was presented:

“What is the most likely potential asset bubble?”

Commodities 41%
Emerging-market equities 27%
Emerging-market real estate 22%
Treasurys 6%
High-yield bonds 4%
U.S. equities 0%

I found the responses to the last five categories (Emerging Market Equities to U.S. Equities) to be very low, and the 0% response to U.S. equities is amazing.

One other miscellaneous comment attached to the above “asset bubble” question was notable as well: “Rebounds in markets after widespread depression worries is not the making of a bubble.”


Regular readers of this blog know that I am not in agreement with the consensus displayed by economists with regard to the present and future economic condition… 

As an FYI, I put together a recap of various economic forecasts and predictions made from mid-2007 through March 2009.  They can be found on this page under “Predictions”, the second article listed:

Economic forecasts since mid-March 2009 can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” Category on the right-hand side of this home page.


SPX at 1111.05 as this post is written