It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%.
This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey :
In the survey, the average 3Q 2009 GDP growth rate is seen at .6%, followed by 1.9% in Q4, and then 2.3% in 1Q 2010 and 2.8% in 2Q2010. Unemployment is seen at 9.9% in December 2009 and gradually declines to 9.4% in December 2010.
Again, this survey of 54 economists seems to generally match the consensus among other public (Federal Reserve and other government agency) and private sources.
I will use this post as a reference going forward. It seems to confirm that economists in general see that “the worst is behind us” for the most part and that mild economic growth (i.e. a recovery) awaits in coming quarters.
SPX at 924.54 as this post is written