America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For a variety of reasons, I believe the economic forecasts previous to and during the “Financial Crisis” of late ’08 – early ’09 deserve scrutiny. I have assembled a variety of the more notable forecasts and opinions of the period in a document titled “Predictions.” Additionally, I would like to highlight the August 2008 Wall …
On December 27, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, up from 50 in the third quarter. An …
The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published January 14, 2011. The headline is “Economists Optimistic On Growth.” I found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting, including questions on “Grading Central Bankers” and “QE2”. The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following: GDP: full-year …
On December 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 4th quarter. The December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was also released on December 14. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published December 13, 2010. I found a couple of excerpts, seen below, to be especially notable: “The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. …
Here is a link to the FOMC Minutes of November 2-3, 2010. (pdf) One item of interest is the section titled “Summary Of Economic Projections.” This section displays and discusses projections and statistics of various measures including GDP, Unemployment Rate, and PCE Inflation. As stated in the FOMC Minutes: “In conjunction with the November 2–3, …
Gallup has a variety of economic surveys that I find interesting. Here are charts of three that I find especially noteworthy: – Americans’ Standard of Living Optimism: (reported November 5, 2010) – U.S. Economic Confidence (reported November 9, 2010) – U.S. Consumer Spending (reported November 11, 2010) – At each link, details of each survey …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations, which are close to other economic survey results featured on this blog: …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published November 15, 2010. I found a couple of items to be especially interesting. First, regarding the impact of QE2: “The economic impact of the Fed’s moves is likely to be modest, the forecasters said. They estimate growth in GDP will rise by 0.2 percentage points …
On October 1, I wrote a post about the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 3rd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 50, down from 62 in the second quarter. There are …