America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25. Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October …
Goldman Sachs yesterday came out with a new forecast on the S&P500 price as well as operating earnings, as seen on CNBC.com here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31774313 I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future: “Goldman’s current economic view is for below-trend growth through …
I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson. It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting. Here is her quote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31910717/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ “We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. …
After I wrote a post yesterday about Nouriel Roubini’s latest thoughts on the economy going forward, he came out with a statement that elaborated upon his stance. It can be found at the following link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275 As I pointed out yesterday, I find his views and forecasts to be important for a number of reasons, …
I’ve recently run across three other economist forecasting items I would like to post. While I don’t mean to overemphasize these forecasts, I do think they are very significant on a number of fronts; and as such they deserve close monitoring and continual analysis and commentary: First, another economist forecast survey that seems generally in …
The following story recently (June 25) ran in The Wall Street Journal: “OECD Says The Worst May Soon Be Over For The Global Economy” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124583299366346443.html This conclusion, that “the worst may soon be over” and that recovery will quickly follow, seems to be extremely widely held among forecasters, as documented elsewhere (such as the June …
For those who didn’t read Ben Bernanke’s Commencement Address to The Boston College School of Law on May 22, I would like to highlight a few passages. I found the passages below informative and telling; I will let them speak for themselves, and might refer back to them in future posts. The entire speech can be …