The following story recently (June 25) ran in The Wall Street Journal:
“OECD Says The Worst May Soon Be Over For The Global Economy”
This conclusion, that “the worst may soon be over” and that recovery will quickly follow, seems to be extremely widely held among forecasters, as documented elsewhere (such as the June 19 post) on this blog.
I find this “widely held” facet to be fascinating in and among itself. Economic forecasts since 2007 have proven very inaccurate, and now we have an overwhelming consensus among public and private forecasters of recovery and slow growth going forward. From a purely statistical standpoint, what are the odds of such an overwhelming consensus proving accurate going forward, given that forecasts of 2007 – early 2009 proved so inaccurate?
Another issue is why is there such a consensus? Are all the forecasters using the same models, or is there such uncertainty that a “safety in numbers” mentality has taken hold?
SPX at 930.20 as this post is written