I’ve recently run across three other economist forecasting items I would like to post. While I don’t mean to overemphasize these forecasts, I do think they are very significant on a number of fronts; and as such they deserve close monitoring and continual analysis and commentary:
First, another economist forecast survey that seems generally in line with the apparent economic forecast consensus, which I remarked upon in the last post:
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1051292120090710
Second, from the RGE Monitor – U.S. Economic Outlook: Q2 2009 Update:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/257243/rge_monitor__us_economic_outlook_q2_2009_update
“We forecast negative real GDP growth in Q2 2009 and Q3 2009, and for real GDP to remain flat in Q4. After the sharp contraction in economic activity in 2009, growth will reenter positive territory only in 2010, and then at a very sluggish rate, well below potential.”
Third, from the CalculatedRisk blog; not a economic/economist forecast, per se, but some thoughts as to what 2009-2010 may hold:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/selected-gdp-forecasts.html
“I think the real GDP growth will turn slightly positive sometime in the 2nd half of this year, but my guess is 2010 will be barely positive, with the unemployment rate rising for most of 2010.”
SPX at 879.13 as this post is written
Copyright 2009 by Ted Kavadas