America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2025:Q4). The last value (as of the March 19, 2026 update) is $184.105614 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of March 13, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
On March 11, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2026. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Rises in Q1 2026“: The overall Index increased by nine points from last quarter to 89, above its long-term historic average of 83. CEOs …
The February 2026 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, March 10, 2026. The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .5 points to 98.8. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.5 points in February to 98.8 but remained slightly above …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on March 6, 2026. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2026: 2.5% full-year 2027: 2.1% full-year 2028: …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …