America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 6, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals a Resilient, Accelerating Economy“: The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2023:Q4). The last value (as of the March 7, 2024 update) is $156.214403 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 7, 2024 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 7, 2024 update (reflecting data through March 1, 2024) is -.7760: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at high levels. As seen …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through the March 1, 2024 close, which had a value of 13.11. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart to …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of March 1, 2024 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Moves Sideways in February“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …