America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 13, 2023: Year 2023 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $214.18/share …
The December 2023 Livingston Survey published on December 15, 2023 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 29, 2023 4593.2 June 28, 2024 4678.0 Dec. 31, 2024 4833.5 Dec. 31, 2025 5088.2 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On December 13, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this December 13, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 CEO Economic Outlook Index Reflects a Stable but Cooling U.S. Economy“: The overall Index ticked up a modest two points from …
On Wednesday, December 13, 2023 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2023 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 14, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 8, 2023) is -.4063: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 12, 2023. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Owners Pessimistic About Future Business Conditions.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .1 point to 90.6. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
On December 11, 2023, the Fannie Mae Q4 2023 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q4 2023 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …