America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2024, updated on September 26, 2024. This value is $289,720 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
On September 25, 2024 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFOs remain largely optimistic about their economic trajectory as they …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .12: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
On September 18, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 Economic Index Ticks Down as CEOs Temper Expectations“: Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO …
On Wednesday, September 18, 2024 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2024 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 19, 2024 update (reflecting data through September 13, 2024) is -.2977: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 13, 2024, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …