America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 14th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on July 5, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to June 29, …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” (pdf) “high-level” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2012. As seen in page 2 of the report, “Ninety-three CFOs responded during the two weeks ended May 29. Three fourths are from public companies, and over 77% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue.” Here are some excerpts that …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 29, 2012: Year 2012 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $103.60/share …
On July 3, Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Confidence Retreats From May’s Improved Level.” The subtitle is “Confidence in June slid more among high-income than lower-income Americans.” Three of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index averaged -22 in June, down from -17 in May and reverting to the -22 recorded in …