America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on October 4, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 28, …
On October 2, Gallup released the poll results titled “Monthly U.S. Economic Confidence Up Sharply in September.” The subtitle is “Confidence surged in early September and remained elevated throughout the month.” Three of the most notable excerpts: The Gallup Economic Confidence Index averaged -19 in September, up from -27 in August and nearly matching the -17 seen in …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on September 27, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 21, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August, last updated on September 27. This value is 198,494 ($ Millions) : (click on charts …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “high-level” report for the 3rd Quarter of 2012. As seen in page 2 of the report, “Eighty-five CFOs responded during the two weeks ended August 24. More than 75% are from public companies, and 80% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue.” Here are some excerpts that I …
Doug Short had a blog post of September 25 (“September Consumer Confidence Surprises to the Upside“) in which he presents the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …