America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of February 6, 2013: Year 2012 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $97.20/share …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 7, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to February 1, …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2013. The headline is “Economists See 2.4% GDP Growth in 2013.” Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. Two …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 21st update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the July 25, 2012 post titled “The Bond Bubble – July 2012 Update“) yields of various Treasury maturities have started to increase. Here is a chart depicting the recent movements of various (3-month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year …
On February 5, Gallup released the poll results titled “Monthly U.S. Economic Confidence Matches Five-Year High.” The subtitle is “Economic confidence improved most weeks in January.” Two of the most notable excerpts: U.S. Economic Confidence improved to -13 in January, matching the five-year monthly high set in November 2012. Economic confidence improved steadily from September to November …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of February 3 …