America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Doug Short had a blog post of November 26 (“Consumer Confidence Declines Again in November“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2013 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 25. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2013 : 1.7% full-year 2014 : 2.6% full-year …
This post is an update to previous posts concerning food stamps. The program is officially called “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” or SNAP. As stated on the SNAP website, “As of Oct. 1, 2008, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the new name for the federal Food Stamp Program.” The data was last updated November 8, 2013, reflecting August 2013 levels. …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 30 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of November 21, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $109.47/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 14, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $107.19/share …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on November 21, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 15, …
Recently there have been a variety of discussions as to whether the stock market is experiencing a bubble. Among the main drivers of such discussion is the stock market’s seemingly near-constant price advancements, frequent record-high closes, and the duration of the advance, all of which are against the backdrop of the (at best) slow-growth economy. …