America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …
I often write about interest rates and related topics as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble. The characteristics and price levels of corporate bonds is highly noteworthy. For reference purposes, here are three bond indices and their FRED charts, as well as depictions of their spreads (as seen …
In the December 16, 2013 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Bullish on 2014.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2014 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: THE 10 STRATEGISTS Barron’s consulted about the outlook for …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2013. The headline is “Economists Split on Start of Fed Pullback.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. As to the …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on December 12, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 6, …
The December 2013 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 12, 2013 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2013 1800.7 June 30, 2014 1841.1 Dec. 31, 2014 1875.0 Dec. 31, 2015 1948.5 These figures represent the median value across …
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, December 10. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Sees Slight Bump in November.” The subtitle is “Few Positive Signs for the Future.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .9 points in November to 92.5. Here are some excerpts from the …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2013“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2013:Q3). The last value (as of December 9, 2013) …