The December 2013 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2013.  The headline is “Economists Split on Start of Fed Pullback.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

As to the question (seen in the spreadsheet detail) “Please estimate on a scale of 0 to 100 the probability of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months,” the average was 12%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2013:  2.1%

full-year 2014:  2.7%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2013: 7.1%

December 2014: 6.5%

December 2015: 6.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2013: 2.86%

December 2014: 3.47%

December 2015: 3.91%


December 2013:  1.4%

December 2014:  2.0%

December 2015:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2013: $97.85

for 12/31/2014: $97.26

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1777.77 as this post is written