Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 24, 2015:
As of September 18, 2015 (incorporating data through September 11, 2015) the WLI was at 131.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.2%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of September 18, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Up Slightly from Last Week“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 19, 2015:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the September 18, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.7 and the CEI was at 112.6 in August.
An excerpt from the September 18 release:
“The U.S. LEI suggests economic growth will remain moderate into the New Year, with little reason to expect growth to pick up substantially,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Average working hours and new orders in manufacturing have been weak, pointing to more slow growth in the industrial sector. However, employment, personal income and manufacturing and trade sales have all been rising, helping to offset the weakness in industrial production in recent months.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of September 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Sees Fractional Increase In August“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1915.87 as this post is written