America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his February 1, 2016 post titled …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
Doug Short had a blog post of January 29, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: January Final Fractionally Below December“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of January 29, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate at .7%, Down from Q3 Third Estimate” post of January 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, updated on January 28, 2016. This value is $225,422 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 21, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 15) is -.416. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of September 21, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – September 21, 2015 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …