America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 7, 2014 update (reflecting data through August 1) is -1.282. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 12. The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB SBET: Small Business Optimism Ticks Up Slightly.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .7 points in July to 95.7. Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …
In the February 24 post, titled “Economic Expansion, Recession Or Depression?” I discussed whether the U.S. economy was then in an economic recovery, economic recession, or economic depression. In that post, I highlighted the Marist Poll results of February 5, in which 61% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy is in a recession. Recently, there have …
In the August 7, 2014 post (“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis“) I mentioned a “widespread ‘paycheck to paycheck’” situation as well as other signs indicating widespread weak financial wherewithal. Another recently released report provides details as to the financial situation experienced by Americans. This report is the Federal Reserve report released August 7, 2014, …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his August 7, 2014 post titled …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 39th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 7, 2014. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3%.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. One excerpt: According …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …