America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 12, 2017. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Holds Its Altitude In August.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in August to 105.3. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The September 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 7, 2017. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 7, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 1, 2017) is -1.506. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weak growth or economic contraction. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict …
On September 5, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Surges, Then Declines, in August.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they believe the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (September 1, 2017) close, which had a closing value of 10.13. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …