America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 12, 2018 update (reflecting data through April 6, 2018) is -.896. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2018 “World Economic Outlook.” The subtitle is ”Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change.” One area of the report is Figure 1.22 on page 24. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 106 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The April 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2018. The headline is “Powerful Forces Seen Restraining U.S. Pay Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: A majority …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 5, 2018 update (reflecting data through March 30, 2018) is -.919. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …