April 2018 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2018 “World Economic Outlook.”  The subtitle is ”Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change.”

One area of the report is Figure 1.22 on page 24.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various global economies.

As one can see, the report states that the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 18% probability of recession and roughly a 2% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.


I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2706.39 this post is written