America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 2018 Livingston Survey published on June 15, 2018 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Jun. 29, 2018 2720.0 Dec. 31, 2018 2824.0 Jun. 28, 2019 2850.0 Dec. 31, 2019 2880.3 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On Wednesday, June 13, 2018 Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2018 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
On June 13, 2018 the June 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The Optimism Index in the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 7, 2018 update (reflecting data through June 1, 2018) is -1.085. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 12, 2018. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records in May.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in May by 3 points to 107.8. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 7, 2018. The headline is “Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …