The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 7, 2018. The headline is “Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Among dozens of forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal, 61% said they expected U.S. growth in the medium term would be modestly stronger thanks to the bill signed last month by President Donald Trump. Some 33% said they expected no effect on economic growth from the rules-rollback. Few expected a decline or significant increase.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.83%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%. For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 14.59%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 56 academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted June 1 – June 5, 2018.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2018: 2.9%
full-year 2019: 2.4%
full-year 2020: 1.9%
December 2018: 3.6%
December 2019: 3.6%
December 2020: 3.9%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2018: 3.23%
December 2019: 3.59%
December 2020: 3.54%
December 2018: 2.5%
December 2019: 2.3%
December 2020: 2.2%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2018: $67.16
for 12/31/2019: $66.62
for 12/31/2020: $63.05
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation