America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Today’s (August 29, 2018) GDP release (Q2 2018, 2nd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 2nd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 23, 2018 update (reflecting data through August 17, 2018) is -1.239. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
On August 28, 2018, the Zillow Q3 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Annual home-value appreciation has been faster in 2018 than it was in 2017, and inventory has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 42 consecutive months. These conditions have …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through June) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of August 28, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in June”: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 27, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .13: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July 2018, updated on August 24, 2018. This value is $246,852 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 16, 2018 update (reflecting data through August 10, 2018) is -1.259. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …