America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through June 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of June 27, 2025 (“Consumer Sentiment Increases for First Time in Six Months“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 26, 2025 update (reflecting data through June 20, 2025) is -.6635: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May 2025, updated on June 26, 2025. This value is $343,585 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 26, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.28: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On June 25, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: In the survey, which closed on June 6, CFOs revised …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The June 2025 Livingston Survey published on June 24, 2025 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2025 5850.0 Dec. 31, 2025 5801.7 June 30, 2026 6027.3 Dec. 31, 2026 6210.3 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. _____ I post …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
On June 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q2“: Business Roundtable today released its Q2 2025 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and …