America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, June 18, 2025 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2025 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 13, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 12, 2025: Year 2025 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $255.76/share -From …
On June 13, 2025, the Fannie Mae Q2 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q2 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2025:Q1). The last value (as of the June 12, 2025 update) is $169.307269 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 12, 2025 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.6 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 12, 2025 update (reflecting data through June 6, 2025) is -.8111: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The May 2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 10, 2025. The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 3.0 points to 98.8. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up …