America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
On Friday (March 20, 2020) I wrote a post (“Federal Reserve Actions To Address Financial And Economic Weakness“) detailing recently announced Federal Reserve actions intended to address various problematical conditions. These conditions include actual and expected substantial economic weakness, financial instability, and various rapidly falling asset prices. In that post I also highlighted my thoughts …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 23, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of .16: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
Recently, the Federal Reserve has taken many substantial actions to address financial market weakness, as well as an actual and expected very large drop in economic activity. In addition to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve, there are various actions taken at the Federal, State, and local levels. These programs are largely still being …
On March 19, 2020, the Zillow Q1 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q1 2020 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 12, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 6, 2020) is -.936. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of March 16, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 13, 2020: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.10/share …