America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave an unscheduled FOMC Press Conference. (link of audio and related materials) [also, there was a previously unscheduled FOMC Press Conference on March 3; link of video and related materials] Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2019:Q4). The last value (as of the March 12, 2020 update) is $118.36818 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 12, 2020 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge …
The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 5, 2020 update (reflecting data through February 28, 2020) is -1.208. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The February NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, March 10, 2020. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Owners Remained Optimistic in February.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .2 points to 104.5. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): “The …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …