America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .66: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
On February 18, 2021, The Conference Board released the Q1 2021 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 73, up from 64. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this February 18, 2021 Press Release include: Current Conditions CEOs’ assessment of general …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 18, 2021 update (reflecting data through February 12, 2021) is -.9186: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of February …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of February 12, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of February 11, 2021: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.77/share …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2021 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 12, 2021. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2021: 4.5% full-year 2022: 3.7% full-year 2023: …
The February 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2021. The headline is “Forecasters Lift Expectations for 2021 Economic Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Economists on …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …