America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .51: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled March 2022 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of March 11, 2022, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 11, 2022: Year 2021 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $208.07/share …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2021:Q4). The last value (as of the March 10, 2022 update) is $150.289512 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 10, 2022 update (reflecting data through March 4, 2022) is -.2709: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
My discussion concerning the possibility of U.S. hyperinflation can be found on the recently posted “The Possibility Of Hyperinflation Occurring In The United States” page. This page discusses the current high level of U.S. inflation, factors that influence the level of inflation, and the possibility of hyperinflation occurring. The effects that a hyperinflation and accompanying …