America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2021 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s (March 30, 2022) GDP release (Q4 2021, Third Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of March 29, 2022 (“Consumer Confidence Rebounds in March“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through January) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 29, 2022 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index increased 19.2% year-over-year in January“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be …
On March 21, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this March 21, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index: Slight Dip Amid Global Uncertainty; CEOs Responding to Historically High Demand with Strong Hiring, Investment Plans“: Business …
On March 24, 2022, the Zillow Q1 2022 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs said the panel’s average projections for home price growth in 2022 have been revised upward, from 6.6% three months ago to 9% in this survey. “Against …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 24, 2022 update (reflecting data through March 18, 2022) is -1.0293: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2022, updated on March 24, 2022. This value is $271,512 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …