America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 19, 2022. The headline is “Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: Economists surveyed by The …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 21, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .01: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On June 13, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this June 13, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q2 CEO Economic Outlook Index Declines; Expectations and Plans Decelerate Amid Continued Geopolitical, Global Economic Uncertainty“: Business Roundtable today released its Q2 …
The June 2022 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 17, 2022 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2022 4100.0 Dec. 30, 2022 4130.0 June 30, 2023 4186.1 Dec. 29, 2023 4245.4 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 16, 2022 update (reflecting data through June 10, 2022) is -1.5130: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
On Wednesday, June 15, 2022 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2022 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 14, 2022. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Owners’ Expectations for the Future at 48-year Low.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .1 points to 93.1. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 10, 2022, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 9, 2022: Year 2022 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $224.23/share …