America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The December 2025 Livingston Survey published on December 19, 2025 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2025 6830.0 June 30, 2026 6909.9 Dec. 31, 2026 6990.0 Dec. 31, 2027 7285.90 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. _____ I post various …
On December 17, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The top concern among U.S. CFOs remains tariffs, though their …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 12, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 3, 2025: Year 2025 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $263.76/share -From …
On December 11, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Index Improves But Remains Below Historic Average“: The overall Index posted a four-point increase from last quarter to 80, below its historic average of 83. The slight …
On December 11, 2025, the Fannie Mae Q4 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q4 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …
On Wednesday, December 10, 2025 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2025 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …