America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that have existed prior …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of March 31, 2023 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops for First Time in Four Months“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be …
On March 31, 2023 Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Pessimism Persists, With Inflation Still Key Concern.” Notable excerpts include: The American public continues to rate the U.S. economy in mostly negative terms in March, with 83% describing current economic conditions as “only fair” or “poor.” Just 16% consider them “excellent” or “good.” Furthermore, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 30, 2023 update (reflecting data through March 24, 2023) is .3406: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2022 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s (March 30, 2023) GDP release (Q4 2022, Third Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …
On March 29, 2023 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Financial decision-makers became …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through January) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 28, 2023 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index…“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those …