America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate at .7%, Down from Q3 Third Estimate” post of January 29, 2016, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2015 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 29, 2016: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, updated on January 28, 2016. This value is $225,422 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of September 21, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – September 21, 2015 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of these various indicators are especially notable. While many are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of economic weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or worrisome trends, and a …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of January 15, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 79 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
I found President Obama’s State of the Union Address last night (January 12, 2016) to contain some noteworthy comments. While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future point. I …
One notable aspect of the financial markets is the continuing sharp drop in crude oil prices. Other commodities have also been under selling pressure. I view these declines, as well as other aspects of the overall financial system, to be manifestations of “deflationary pressures,” of which I have extensively written. As discussed by the Wall …