America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of February 26, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January, updated on February 25, 2016. This value is $237,465 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2016 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 18, 2016. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results(pdf)) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
Yesterday (February 11, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury went below 1.60%, before closing at 1.644%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale, with price labels: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On February 2, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Flat at -11 in January.” Notable excerpts include: Americans’ confidence in the economy last month was unchanged from December. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -11 for the month of January. This is much higher than most monthly averages recorded since …
Doug Short had a blog post of January 29, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: January Final Fractionally Below December“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2015, and were last updated as of January 29, 2016. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …