America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) A chart …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of November 14, 2014, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q3 2015 management call transcript (pdf) dated November 13, 2014. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q3 results) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
On November 4, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index in Highest in Over a Year.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index jumped to a monthly reading of -12 in October. This is the most positive score since the -12 of July 2013, though it is still lower than the …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2014, and were last updated as of October 30, 2014. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 6.178: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
Doug Short had a blog post of October 31, 2014 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment at a Seven-Year High“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted (the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2014 Advance Estimate of October 30, 2014): _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1994.65 as this post is written
For reference purposes, below are four charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money Stock” …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, last updated on October 28, 2014. This value is 241,633 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to …